Statistical Evaluation of Some Models to Estimate Instantaneous Total Insolation on Horizontal Surfaces within Suez Gulf Region

للكاتبين :

A. S. Nafeya,*, M. A. Mohamadb, M. A. Sharafa

a Dept. of Engineering Science, Faculty of Petroleum and Mining Engineering, Suez Canal Univ,


b Energy Department, National Research Center, Cairo-Egypt.


It is important for many solar energy systems to estimate and predict the instant or daily

mean direct and diffuse irradiation on horizontal or tilted surfaces at any known location.

One of the targets of the present article is to perform a simple statistical evaluation of 7

model results. These models are employed to estimate and predict the solar radiation on

different surfaces and locations. They are fed with local measured data. The results of the

evaluation would help to recommend one or more models for the considered region

(latitude: 29o N; longitude: 33o E). Statistical indicators, such as Mean Bias Error (MBE),Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Relative Percentage Error (MPE) are used in

this comparison. The considered models are ASHREA, ATWATER&BALL, BIRD,

DAVIES&HAY, HOYT, LACIS&HANSEN and SPECTRAL2. The obtained results

have shown that, BIRD and DAVIES&HAY models could be recommended for

estimating both the instantaneous hourly direct and diffuse radiation on horizontal

surfaces for the considered region. And, ASHREA, SPECTRAL2 and

ATWATER&BALL are occupied the second rank. Models such as HOYT and

LACIS&HANSEN would not recommend for the considered region. Also, a new

correlation is developed by which the total insolation could be predicted.

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